US Presidential Elections: The Use of Past Elections to Predict Future Outcomes

Copyright 2000 J. Lee Lehman

Published in the Astrological Journal, September 2000

 

There are two generalized methods to predict the outcome of a political election: either we can find an appropriate mundane chart (such as Ingresses, election day charts, prior lunations) to use for predictive purposes, or we can find a method based on the two primary opponents’ nativities. I have addressed the mundane charts in a previous article.[1] Here, I report the results of some studies to examine the actual, instead of the theoretical results for successful candidates. In the USA, our Constitution specifies the dates of our presidential elections: the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, in calendar years divisible by four. Unlike the parliamentary system, there is no possibility of an election sooner than a given date. Interest in the astrology of elections wanes from just after the election until the next election period. Accordingly, every four years, a crop of astrologers will make predictions, but those predictions are seldom followed up in a manner that allows us to learn from both our victories and our losses. And so four years later, a new set of predictions occur, based on techniques that may be accurate, or may be false.

 

To study political elections from a natal perspective, it occurred to me that there would be two interesting historical approaches. The first may seem so obvious as to border upon trite, but it’s best to state it: by definition, a president is a successful candidate! Therefore, if we study presidents’ nativities at the time of their successful campaigns, we can at least characterize certain natal techniques. Then, if we have chart data for both candidates, we can study other techniques comparatively. I will present both types of models. In both cases, I have restricted myself to presidents and candidates whose data meets the Rodden AA-B criteria.[2]

 

Study 1: The Lunation Cycle

 

Let’s begin with the Lunation Cycle. The results are shown in Table One, using the 8th harmonic version of the Lunation Cycle, running from Phase 1 (progressed New Moon), through Phase 5 (progressed Full Moon), and finally to Phase 8 (Balsamic).

 


Table One. Presidential Lunation Cycle data itemized.

 

 

Name

 

Rodden Rating

 

Date took Office

 

Natal Soli-Lunar Phase

 

Phase at Inaugur-ation

 

1. George Washington

 

AA

 

4/30/1789

 

7

 

7

 

2. James Madison

 

B

 

3/4/1809

 

6

 

6

 

3. James K. Polk

 

A

 

3/4/1845

 

6

 

3

 

4. Abraham Lincoln

 

B

 

3/4/1861

 

8

 

6

 

5. Ulysses S. Grant

 

A

 

3/4/1869

 

2

 

7

 

6. Rutherford B. Hayes

 

A

 

3/4/1877

 

6

 

4

 

7. James Garfield

 

A

 

3/4/1881

 

4

 

2

 

8. Chester A. Arthur*

 

A

 

9/20/1881

 

2

 

8

 

9. William McKinley

 

A

 

3/4/1897

 

8

 

7

 

10. Theodore Roosevelt*

 

B

 

9/14/1901

 

6

 

2

 

11. William H. Taft

 

A

 

3/4/1909

 

8

 

6

 

12. Woodrow Wilson

 

B

 

3/4/1913

 

1

 

8

 

13. Warren G. Harding

 

A

 

3/4/1921

 

4

 

3

 

14. Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

AA

 

3/4/1933

 

4

 

2

 

15. Harry S. Truman*

 

B

 

4/12/1945

 

4

 

5

 

16. John F. Kennedy

 

A

 

1/20/1961

 

3

 

7

 

17. Lyndon B. Johnson*

 

A

 

11/22/1963

 

1

 

8

 

18. Richard M. Nixon

 

AA

 

1/20/1969

 

1

 

8

 

19. Gerald R. Ford*

 

AA

 

8/9/1974

 

3

 

4

 

20. James E. Carter

 

AA

 

1/20/1977

 

1

 

7

 

21. Ronald Reagan

 

B

 

1/20/1981

 

2

 

5

 

22. George Bush

 

A

 

1/20/1989

 

3

 

5

 

23. William Clinton

 

A

 

1/20/1993

 

6

 

3

 

* Elected to office as Vice Presidency; assumed the Presidency on the given date.


We can tabulate the results as shown in Table 2. Dane Rudhyar was the best known interpreter of the Lunation Cycle. The Rudhyarian cycle is essentially an agricultural cycle that extends from the sprouting of seeds, growth, maturation, reproduction, senescence, and death. The 8th phase is characterized by “liberation” and the sowing of seeds for the cycle that is to come. The 8th phase is the second half of the Winter season in this system, and there is a strong undercurrent of dormancy in the interpretation of this phase.[3] Clearly, one is not allowed to be very dormant while in high political office!

 

 

 

Table 2. Tabulation of results by Lunation Cycle stage, Rodden Ratings AA-B.

 

 

Phase

 

Natal

 

Took Office

 

1

 

4

 

0

 

2

 

3

 

3

 

3

 

3

 

3

 

4

 

4

 

2

 

5

 

0

 

3

 

6

 

5

 

3

 

7

 

1

 

5

 

8

 

3

 

4

 

These results do not support the premise that the 8th Phase is a dormant time. Unless, of course, we consider the actual isolation caused by being in the White House. We might also observe the tendency of Presidents to age noticeably in office. The 7th-8th Phases are the “Winter” phases, and here the symbolism would be appropriate. But using Rudhyar’s interpretation, most of us probably would have hypothesized a peak around the 5th or 6th Phase, the culminating stage of the cycle.

 

However, the results do strongly support one facet of the concept of the second half of the cycle representing dissemination. If we count up the number of times a President took office when his progressed phase was in the opening half of the cycle (Phases 1-4) versus the closing half, the numbers are 8 and 15 respectively. In other words, it is almost twice as likely that a President will take office in the second half, supporting the idea that this represents taking what we know and all that we have learned in this cycle and putting it out into the public sphere.

 

We can see this even more graphically in the division into quarters. The least common Phase is for the first quarter, what Busteed and Wergin call the “youthful body.”[4] The frequency increases through the four major phases, peaking at the final stage, what they call “emerging spirit,” or, better in my own opinion, their characterization of this period as “compassionate understanding or implacable regret!” Their description reveals a kernel of possible meaning: how much of this job consists of the sad understanding of exactly how little really can be changed?

 

We should not neglect the numbers for natal phase, as they are seemingly just as interesting. Here the ratio of 1st half to 2nd half of the cycle is 14:9 Instead of the emphasis on the second half, now the emphasis has shifted to the first half. Why?

 

Among the terminology Busteed and Wergin used to classify the two halves are Primary for the first half, and Antithetical for the second half. As they express this, “A PRIMARY person cultivates character... [while the] ANTITHETICAL hemicycle allows time for fufilling personal desire.”[5] Now this is interesting. We are using the issue of electability here, not quality of performance. The word “character” pops up every presidential election, and this is not a new issue: successful generals were elected for their “character” beginning with General George Washington, but also including Jackson, Harrison, Taylor, Grant, and Eisenhower. Every president since Franklin Roosevelt has been born in the Primary phase except Clinton, and look how everybody complains about his lack of character! Clinton got himself elected with the slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid!” He was the first post-World War II presidential candidate to conduct a successful campaign in which he dodged the character issue.

 

If we take out this remarkable post-war emphasis on character, and re-compute our figures for the period up through Herbert Hoover, the numbers change to 5:7. Prior to the War, you could get yourself elected either on performance, or on character!

 

It appears that the ideal set-up, at least in the current era, is to have a natal Lunation placement in the opening half of the cycle, and a progressed Lunation in the second half. One needs to have the appearance of Character, but one is actually exercising Will.

 

Some of the concepts about the last part of the Lunation Cycle being a time of letting go may need to be re-examined. Introverted, perhaps, but this phase is not ineffectual. Many of us have observed a tendency, either in ourselves or our clients, for the Native to seemingly withdraw during this phase. This may be completely consistent with the kind of prison lifestyle that high office mandates. But it does not mean that the Native is losing a grip on such matters as drive and ambition.

 

The Candidates in 2000:

 

George W. Bush is 3rd Phase natally. On January 20, 2001, he will be in the 1st Phase of his progressed Lunation Cycle.

 

Al Gore is 6th Phase natally. On January 20, 2001, he will be in the 5th Phase of his progressed Lunation Cycle.

 

 

The Edge: No edge given via this technique. Bush has the more favorable natal placement, while Gore has the more favorable placement by progression.

 

 

 

 

Study 2: Angularity

 

If we begin with a modern technique such as the Lunation Cycle, let us continue with a classical one, namely angularity. During the Roman Empire, criteria had been established to determine whether a particular chart had the characteristics to mark it as a Emperor’s chart. These criteria were taken so seriously, that for a while astrology was banned specifically to prevent these predictions from being made. One of the principal requirements for an Emperor’s chart was angular planets.[6] Since the Roman Emperors were not outstandingly successful at establishing dynasties, the analogies to US Presidents may actually be a good one. The break-out is shown in Tables 3 and 4, showing both a regular house system, and whole sign houses..

 

Table 3. Planetary placements in Regiomontanus houses for US Presidents.

 

 

House:

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

11th

12th

Moon

4

2

2

3

2

0

2

2

1

1

1

3

Sun

3

1

3

3

3

1

0

3

2

0

2

2

Mercury

3

1

2

4

3

1

0

3

1

3

1

1

Venus

4

2

1

4

1

2

1

0

2

3

3

0

Mars

5

2

0

4

2

1

2

4

0

1

1

1

Jupiter

5

1

2

2

2

2

0

1

2

3

0

3

Saturn

3

1

2

2

1

0

0

3

4

3

2

2

TOTALS

27

10

12

22

14

7

5

16

12

14

10

12

 

Table 4. Planetary placements in Whole Sign Houses for US Presidents.

 

 

Houses:

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

11th

12th

Moon

1

5

2

2

2

2

1

2

2

0

1

3

Sun

4

1

3

2

4

2

0

1

2

1

3

0

Mercury

0

4

2

2

2

4

0

1

3

1

1

3

Venus

1

3

2

3

2

1

2

1

1

1

5

1

Mars

2

4

1

3

2

2

1

2

3

1

1

1

Jupiter

6

2

2

1

2

3

1

1

2

2

0

1

Saturn

3

3

2

1

0

2

0

0

5

2

3

2

TOTALS

17

22

14

14

14

16

5

8

18

8

14

11

 

These results are in turn combined and compared in Table 5. Granted, this is an exceptionally small data set; on the other hand, it is a complete data set within the criteria given (i.e., US Presidents with birth data of a certain accuracy), and so sampling issues do not apply. Tentatively, Regiomontanus placements look better than Whole Sign as far as our expectations: the Regiomontanus results show exactly what we would expect: a preponderance of angular placements. The Whole Sign results do not match our expectations. However, it’s also clear that not all angular houses appear to be equal in terms of productivity, at least for US Presidents: the 7th House shows up as considerably worse than the other angular houses, and the 10th does not seem as productive as either the 1st or 4th.

 

Table 5. Summary of placements by quality, comparing Regiomontanus and Whole Sign houses.

 

 

Regiomontanus

Whole Sign

Angular

68

40

Succedent

50

58

Cadent

43

59

 

 

The Candidates in 2000:

 

George W. Bush has Mercury and Venus angular.

 

Al Gore has Venus, Mars and Saturn angular

 

 

The Edge: slight quantitative edge to Gore, but whether this is a quantitative or qualitative effect is currently unknown.

 

 

 

Study 3 Mars-Jupiter Conjunction

 

When interpreting a span of time in Classical mundane astrology, there were three major chart types. The Ingress chart - whether for the year, or the coming season - was commonly used. Eclipses, and the lesser lunations were also interpreted. Finally, Major Conjunctions were always considered.

 

The one Major Conjunction which has been most discussed astrologically with respect to the US Presidential race is the Jupiter-Saturn, in great part because it seems to be a harbinger of the deaths in office of a number of US Presidents. However, as a method of predicting the outcome of the election itself, it leaves a lot to be desired: the most obvious defect being that it happens only every twenty years, while our elections occur every four years!

 

The need for a system that occurs at least every four years narrows our horizons to two generic options: either we take a longer cycle and sub-divide it to the point that we have the right interval, or we select a shorter cycle. There is little evidence that the former system - the subdivision idea - was ever used. In any case, the implication of this idea would still be that the subdivisions other than the conjunction would be secondary - and we have no evidence for a longer-term “cycle” in presidential elections.

 

In the absence of such evidence, we are safer approaching each election as if it were an independent event. This means we need a shorter cycle. There are two such cycles that qualify: and that actually have a track record historically. These two are the Mars-Jupiter and the Mars-Saturn cycles. I had looked at these two cycles previously to ascertain their use as mundane cycles (i.e., apart from their interactions with particular nativities). As such, they were not especially illuminating. But here we examine them as triggers to natal charts.

 

In Table 6 I have itemized all cases where the winning candidate had at least one natal planet within one degree of the location of the Mars-Jupiter conjunction by Ptolemaic aspect.[7]

 

Table 6 Presidential Elections and the Mars-Jupiter cycle itemized. DD data omitted.

The number who had aspects is 28/44 = 63.6 %.

 

 

Election Year

 

Results

 

Date Ma-Ju

 

Degree

 

Aspect

 

1796

 

John Adams*